Beau Dodson Weather

13 hours ago

The myth of winter forecasting. This is the truth about those winter outlooks that you read online or in print publications.

Don't forget to hit share.

If I were to make a dramatic snowstorm post about how snowy and cold this winter will be, then it would probably get hundreds of likes and shares.

The truth about winter forecasting is a lot less glamorous.

Quite a few of you have been asking me about the upcoming winter.

I always give you my honest opinion. Each year, I repeat what is written below.

Not to be a party pooper, but......

There are significant scientific limits to what we can forecast weeks and months in advance.

Some of this is borrowed from the late great John Dee from Wisconsin.

First off, I want to say that I do have friends in the weather community that enjoy posting a winter forecast. Mostly for fun and entertainment purposes. This is nothing against them.

You can already find winter forecasts online. That includes the Farmers Almanac (which has been proven to be inaccurate).

Despite assertions the almanacs are 80-85% accurate, studies have shown their long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer's Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

In other words, your guess is as good as theirs. Flip a coin.

Dick Frymire's winter forecast is another one that usually makes its rounds.

When I was a child, my grandmother would cut his forecast out of the Paducah Sun. We would hang it on the refrigerator. It was always a snowy forecast. It was rarely correct. It was for fun and entertainment.

I want to clarify the distinction between seasonal forecasting and short-term weather forecasting. All weather predictions involve some degree of uncertainty. For forecasts covering the next 24 to 48 hours, you might rely on 90% scientific methods and 10% guesswork. However, for forecasts extending to days 7, 8, 9, or 10, that ratio shifts to about 50% science and 50% guess. When it comes to seasonal forecasting, the scientific basis is much weaker, often resembling creative writing dressed up with meteorological jargon.

In other words, take the winter outlooks with a grain of salt. They are fun and entertaining to read. But, they don't offer up much more value than that.

Key point.

We can NOT accurately forecast what you really want to know. Will there be big snowstorms? Will there be big ice storms? Will there be major river flooding? Will there be tornado outbreaks?

It is not meteorologically possible to forecast SPECIFIC events weeks and months from now.

Let me repeat that! It is not meteorologically possible to forecast specific events weeks and months from now.

On October 17th, if someone tells you there will be four inches of snow on January 15th, then they are throwing darts and guessing. There is no skill involved in that forecast.

We do not have the capability to forecast specific events that far out. I wish we could, but we can't.

If is the same with some computer AI driven weather apps that show you a day twenty forecast. It is impossible to forecast specifics that far out.

So what can we forecast?

One significant factor influencing seasonal weather patterns in the U.S. is El Niño, the phenomenon of warmer-than-average surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is linked to various weather anomalies worldwide, sometimes unjustly blamed for certain conditions. In recent years, many snow enthusiasts have come to view El Niño unfavorably, as it’s often associated with poor snowfall in the Midwest. However, scientists are learning that each El Niño event has unique characteristics, and they can have varying impacts based on their strength.

Historically, it was widely believed that El Niño leads to warmer temperatures across our region. Drier, as well. However, recent observations suggest that weak El Niños can actually bring below-average temperatures to much of the eastern U.S., including many Midwest areas. For example, during the winter of 2003-2004, weak El Niño conditions resulted in a colder and snowier January and February for the Midwest.

On the flip side, strong El Niños typically correlate with above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall in our region., with stronger events often leading to more pronounced impacts.

El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, also brings its own weather anomalies.

We are expecting this winter to be a La Nina winter.

Weak La Niñas can lead to near to below-average temperatures across the midwest, while stronger La Niñas tend to diminish this effect. Interestingly, strong La Niñas can produce warmer conditions in the southern Midwest/Ohio Valley, but these anomalies rarely extend far north.

La Nina's can lead to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.

La Nina's typically mean that our region will experience a slightly higher risk of freezing rain and sleet. It means that we will have a slightly higher risk of severe weather/tornadoes.

It does not mean we will have an ice storm or tornado outbreak. It simply means the chances are slightly increased.

Last year was an El Nino winter. The three previous years were La Nina winters.

If you remember, the La Nina winters did have several rounds of sleet and freezing rain. And, there were significant tornado outbreaks.

There were also some bitterly cold arctic temperature events. They didn't last long, but they were sharp.

One simple method we use to predict winter weather involves looking at long-term averages for a region. The longer the timeframe considered, the closer the numbers will trend toward the norm for temperature and precipitation. For example, a single day might show extreme temperature variations or precipitation levels significantly above average. However, when averaging over multiple days, weeks, or even a year, those extremes tend to balance out.

Weather patterns are inherently cyclical—droughts and floods don’t last indefinitely, and temperature extremes will eventually revert to normal. The longer a particular anomaly persists, the more likely it is to reverse.

I call this the rubber band effect. You pull the rubber band so far to an extreme that it eventually breaks and pops back the other way.

Often times, drought ends with above average precipitation. The rubber band extends to the other extreme. Too wet.

Another approach we employ examines several past seasons for anomalies and assesses whether there’s been an imbalance in the last 5 to 15 years. For instance, if our region has experienced several winters with below-average snowfall, one could argue there’s a greater likelihood of a more snow-filled winter in the near future unless climate patterns shift significantly. Which, they seem to be.

Those climate changes throw monkey wrenches into seasonal forecasts. Patterns become increasingly chaotic.

So, where does this leave us? First, I hope to emphasize that many seasonal forecasts are largely speculative; your guess may be just as valid as any meteorologist’s. While some statistical patterns might suggest certain weather trends, predicting a season’s outcome with confidence remains elusive.

I do believe the science will eventually evolve and lead to seasonal outlooks becoming more accurate. For now, however, we just aren't there.

When you ask me if we will have a snowy winter, the honest answer is we don't know. There is not a way to accurately forecast specifics months in advance.

The best we can do is give you generalities. Will temperatures average above or below normal. Will precipitation average above or below average.

The current outlook for October, November, and December is below average precipitation with near to above average temperatures.

There are signals for several solid cold shots in December.

January and February may deliver above average precipitation. With near average temperatures.

And that is the honest answer about winter forecasting. 🙂 ... See MoreSee Less

Beau Dodson Weather

14 hours ago

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Feel free to post some frost and fog photos. If you have them. ... See MoreSee Less

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Use care this morning. There are areas of dense fog.

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Beau Dodson Weather

1 day ago

How to view Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan–ATLAS

Each evening, look in the western sky about 30 minutes after sunset. You should spot it easily.

The Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan–ATLAS is currently visible to the naked eye. It was brightest on Oct. 13, but can still be seen through the end of the month.

This is the brightest comet to be seen in the past 27 years, according to EarthSky. ... See MoreSee Less