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Saturday, June 20, 2026
Father's Day Thunderstorm Update.
It won't rain all day Sunday. I would not cancel plans, but I would stay vigilant on what the radars are showing and the alerts that I send out.
A complex forecast unfolds Sunday morning into Sunday night. It seems many of the severe weather events this year have been complicated.
Two or more thunderstorm complexes (called MCS's) will impact the quad-state region tomorrow and tomorrow night.
There remain significant uncertainties with the path and intensity of each complex.
This is not uncommon for MCS season (summer). These large thunderstorm complexes often offer up surprises.
Illinois and Missouri will have a higher chance of thunderstorms tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Kentucky and Tennessee will eventually get in on the thunderstorm action (but timing remains a question).
The key takeaway from the forecast is that Sunday into Sunday night will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the area.
Some of these thunderstorms will likely be severe with damaging wind and perhaps some hail. The tornado risk continues to be assessed. It is not a zero risk, by any means.
The morning MCS will impact what happens the rest of the day.
If the morning MCS is farther south (into our region), then it could interfere with what happens later in the day.
As you know, morning clouds and rain cause the atmosphere to be more stable later in the day. Thus, lowering the severe risk.
If, on the other hand, the morning system passes by quickly, then the atmosphere will have plenty of time to receover. Thus, increasing the severe weather threat later in the day and night.
My going forecast does include severe weather on Father's Day. It is just a matter of timing and intensity.
You will want to monitor the latest forecast and radars.
Make sure you have a few ways of receiving your severe weather alerts. Including the Beau Dodson Weather App and TornadoCall. Links in the comments.
A weather radio (Midland Weather Radios) is also a good way to receive warnings.
Stay weather-aware on Sunday and Sunday night.
Remember, a watch means to monitor updates. A WARNING means to seek shelter.
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I am watching Sunday's weather. Perhaps a few intense storms. It is too early for details. I will know more tomorrow.
6/19/26
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🌤️ June 19, 2026
Good morning, fellow weather observers.
A beautiful day ahead of us. Saturday will also be nice.
The blog has been updated. The video has been updated. See those on your Beau Dodson Weather app.
See the www.weathertalk.com weather blog and video for the most up-to-date graphics.
✔️ The daily video and weather blog have been updated with fresh weather graphics.
✔️ The seven-day weather video has been updated on the www.weathertalk.com website and on your Beau Dodson Weather app.
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⚠️ When rain is in the forecast, please see the daily blog for a breakdown of rain probabilities for each 12-hour time period.
The pick day of the weekend will be today and tomorrow.
Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday into Monday. Some storms could be intense on Sunday. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather App for updates.
Please see the daily blog for detailed rain-probability graphics.
See the www.weathertalk.com blog and video for graphics.
See the rain probability graphics on the www.weathertalk.com blog.
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Friday, June 19, 2026
The six to ten and eight to fourteen day precipitation outlook slightly favors above average precipitation.
Darker green represents a higher confidence in the final outcome.
The forecast over the coming two weeks does show on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms.
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